Te Puni Kōkiri has just produced a Māori potential forecast report titled Ngā Kaihanga Hou - For Māori Future Makers.

Project leader Hillmaré Schulze says Te Puni Kōkiri realised that it was crucial to start developing a sophisticated understanding of the future opportunities and challenges to Māori.

"A Te Puni Kōkiri team was established in June 2006 and focused on positioning Māori in the future economic system looking out to the year 2030," she says. "Ngā Kaihanga Hou is an outcome of Te Puni Kōkiri's work in this area over the last 12 months."

Te Puni Kōkiri Chief Executive Leith Comer says this publication is another significant stride by Te Puni Kōkiri in reframing the conversation about Māori economic development in New Zealand.

"At the start of this century the focus by government was on 'Closing the Gaps'. However, this programme had unintended consequences – the most notable of which was continually focusing questions of disparity in terms of Māori being a problem that needed to be fixed," says Leith.

"This constant negativity around things Māori became a barrier in itself but also fundamentally failed to acknowledge Māori as an important part of New Zealand's success.

"Indeed, Te Puni Kōkiri's 2002 Māori Economic Development Report took many by surprise when it concluded that Māori were net positive contributors to the New Zealand economy; that Māori were successful owners of businesses; and that the Māori asset base was sizeable and being well managed."

Leith says it was from this understanding that Te Puni Kōkiri created its Māori Potential Framework with the strategic outcome of 'Māori succeeding as Māori'.

"The Māori population is younger and growing faster so we know that investing in Māori makes sense – for Māori and for New Zealand. All of which adds to the importance of this latest Te Puni Kōkiri report Ngā Kaihanga Hou - For Māori Future Makers, because it hints at where our future investments might reap the greatest rewards."

The report identifies three key future drivers that will influence the way that Māori participate in the economy leading to the year 2030. They are:

• Moving to the innovation economy;
• The redistribution of world economic power; and
• Climate change and resource pressures.

According to the report, moving to the innovation economy represents one of the largest future opportunities (or challenges) for Māori wellbeing, careers and business. Technological advances, both in the existing sectors and in new sectors, research and development, and education will be the three main factors influencing Māori participation in the innovation economy.

The global economic power base is shifting from Europe and America to the new Asian economic powers. This will have a particular impact on Māori through investment and employment opportunities within the new markets driven by enormous economic growth.

Within New Zealand there will be a demographic shift along with the relative youthfulness of the Māori population, as well as the importance of Auckland for the development of Māori and Māori businesses.

Climate change and resource pressures will be a challenge for Māori given the economic concentration of Māori businesses in the agriculture and fishing sectors. Adapting to climate change will require the uptake of new technologies to mitigate and withstand potential climate-related shocks.

The Te Puni Kōkiri team have updated data and research on current Māori participation in the economy to be used as a launching pad for the future. Through this analysis they have identified the following six key factors illustrating the present Māori position in the economy:

• A high Māori exposure to world markets;
• The importance of employment for Māori within New Zealand;
• The Māori population being young and growing;
• The improved quality of life for Māori;
• A growing Māori asset base; and
• A strong Māori culture and identity.

The Māori commercial asset base has increased from $9 billion to $16.5 billion from 2001 to 2006 - an increase of 84 percent. This represents 1.5 percent of the total value of the New Zealand business sector in 2005/06, slightly better than the 1.2 percent of 2001.

In relation to adding value to the economy, the value added by Māori businesses more than doubled between 1996 and 2003, increasing by $1.4 billion. This also represents an increase in the contribution to the national GDP, an increase from 1.23 percent in 1996 to 1.96 percent in 2003.

The report argues that to ensure sustainable long-term growth for Māori in the economy, changes are needed in future investment strategies to reflect the key drivers of future change.

According to Ngā Kaihanga Hou, future economic growth and development will be directed at increasing the Māori share of the economy, growing and diversifying the asset base and broadening the economic activities for Māori.

These considerations led the report authors to identify five key areas for greater Māori participation in the future economy:

• Leveraging Māori businesses into growth and strategic industries;
• Increasing export growth participation;
• Improving the qualification base of Māori;
• Promoting higher levels of entrepreneurship; and
• Nurturing innovation.

Hillmaré Schulze says that by building on our successes, and understanding our weaknesses, Māori can have confidence to face an exciting future knowing that they are prepared.

"The challenge for New Zealand is to continue unlocking opportunities for the increased participation of Māori in the future economy," says Hillmaré.

For more information please contact Hillmaré Schulze at Te Puni Kōkiri: schuh@tpk.govt.nz or phone 04 819 6768.